What India’s path to the semi-finals looks like after key victory

November 4, 2021 at 1:05 AM

After one-sided defeats to Pakistan and New Zealand in their first two games, India finally got points on board with a 66-run win over Afghanistan in Abu Dhabi.

The Men in Bue needed to win and win big against Afghanistan, given that their net run rate was -1.609 before the game. And the team responded in a strong fashion, restricting Afghanistan to 144/7 in their chase of 211.

The win against Afghanistan keeps India’s World Cup hopes alive but there’s a lot that needs to go their way if they are to make it to the semi-finals.

Virat Kohli’s side will have to win their two remaining games, by big margins at that, and hope that New Zealand drop points against either Namibia or Afghanistan.

Remaining Group 2 fixtures

New Zealand vs Namibia
India vs Scotland
New Zealand vs Afghanistan
Pakistan vs Scotland
India vs Namibia

The net run-rate situation

The 66-run win over Afghanistan helped India finish with a positive net run rate of 0.073. However, they still have a lot of catching up to do as Afghanistan, thanks to their massive win over Scotland, have a net run rate of +1.481 while New Zealand’s stands at +0.816.

“NRR was on the back of our mind,” said Virat Kohli in the post-match presentation. “We spoke in the team meeting that we have to focus on the chance we have [to qualify] and stay positive and hunt that chance down.”

Though India will be happy with their win today, they could end up ruing the fact that they conceded 56 runs in the last five overs, when they could have killed the game and bolstered their net run rate further, which could decide the semi-finalists.

Amongst the many permutations possible, if India do end up winning the remaining two games, New Zealand beat Namibia but lose to Afghanistan, there could be a three-way tie at 6 points, with net run rate deciding which team goes through.

New Zealand have their fate in their own hands

After a defeat in their first game to Pakistan, New Zealand bounced back really well with wins over India and Scotland. They registered a convincing win over Virat Kohli’s men, but were guilty of letting the match out of their hands in the game against Scotland, where they won by 16 runs.(ICC)